电气技术  2017, Vol. 18 Issue (3): 42-46    DOI:
研究与开发 |
灰色Verhulst与等维新息组合模型在中长期负荷预测中的研究
林天祥, 张宁
福州大学,福州 350116
Research on Grey Verhulst and Equal Dimension New Information Model in Medium and Long Term Load Forecasting
Lin Tianxiang, Zhang Ning
Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350116
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摘要 本文针对中长期电力负荷预测使用的历史数据较少且影响因素较多的特点,提出了一种线性灰色组合模型。该模型将灰色Verhulst模型与等维新息灰色理论线性组合,充分发挥了灰色Verhulst模型所需数据少、不受特定负荷数据以及等维新息灰色理论影响,保持数据原有维数、保证最优信息量和动态预测的优势。算例结果表明,该预测模型精度较高,具有实用性。
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林天祥
张宁
关键词 灰色Verhulst模型等维新息灰色理论组合负荷预测    
Abstract:The paper proposes a linear grey combined model for the medium and long term power load forecasting which has the characteristics of less historical data and more influencing factors.The model is a linear combination of the grey Verhulst model and the equal dimension new information grey theory.The model gives full play to the advantages of the grey Verhulst model which needs less data and is not affected by the specific load data.The model also takes advantages of the equal dimension new information grey theory ,which can maintain the original dimension of the data,guarantee the optimal information quantity,achieve dynamic prediction.The results show that the model has high accuracy and practicability.
Key wordsgray Verhulst model    equal dimension new information grey theory    combined load forecasting   
     出版日期: 2017-03-21
引用本文:   
林天祥, 张宁. 灰色Verhulst与等维新息组合模型在中长期负荷预测中的研究[J]. 电气技术, 2017, 18(3): 42-46. Lin Tianxiang, Zhang Ning. Research on Grey Verhulst and Equal Dimension New Information Model in Medium and Long Term Load Forecasting. Electrical Engineering, 2017, 18(3): 42-46.
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https://dqjs.cesmedia.cn/CN/Y2017/V18/I3/42