Abstract：The trend curve of long-term power load tends to be S type, so if it uses the GM(1,1) model directly, it will cause a large deviation. According to the inherent development trend of load curve, it can forecast the load in stages following the different development stages of curve, and in the first stage, it uses GM(1,1) model, in the second stage, it uses residual corrected model. On the basis of forecasting in stages, it assigns weights according to prediction accuracy of each stage to conduct combination forecasting. This method combines the data itself development trend and the model inherent advantages, and the forecasting results show the method is feasible to improve forecasting accuracy.
卢建昌, 裴乐萍. 中长期电力负荷的灰色残差修正组合预测[J]. 电气技术, 2013, 14(07): 7-10.
Lu Jianchang, Pei Leping. Gray System Theory and Residual Corrected Model Combination Forecasting of Long-term Power Load. Electrical Engineering, 2013, 14(07): 7-10.
2013, Vol. 14 
