Abstract：Transformer is the key equipment to realize voltage conversion in distribution network, and its safety is related to the reliability of the whole distribution system. The accurate prediction of the remaining useful life (RUL) of the transformer is the prerequisite for the safety warning. The complex mechanical structure and the changeable working environment cause the temperature fluctuation between the materials and the mechanical stress is generated. The continuous action of the mechanical stress causes the fatigue aging of the insulation materials, resulting in the decline of the insulation performance and the sudden failure of the transformer. Therefore, a particle filter based forecast method of RUL for transformer is proposed in this paper to achieve the accurate identification of transformer RUL under various working conditions. Firstly, the calculation method of the internal oil temperature of the transformer insulation paper is established, and the estimation model of the transformer insulation RUL is established. Secondly, the particle filter algorithm is used to probabilistically quantify the uncertainty of the internal oil temperature calculation of the insulating paper, and the uncertainty description is converted into the uncertainty distribution of the estimated RUL of the transformer, so as to obtain a more accurate RUL of the transformer. An example analysis shows the effectiveness of the proposed method.
李冬, 钱飞翔, 李今宋, 邓清飞. 配电网变压器剩余使用寿命预测[J]. 电气技术, 2024, 25(3): 32-37.
LI Dong, QIAN Feixiang, LI Jinsong, DENG Qingfei. Prediction of remaining useful life of transformer in distribution network. Electrical Engineering, 2024, 25(3): 32-37.
2024, Vol. 25 
