基于健康指数和非等间隔灰色预测的重载铁路牵引变压器状态评估方法

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Abstract Traction transformers (TRs) are key equipment in the traction power supply system of heavy haul railways (HHRs). With the increase of operating mileage and service time of HHR, the safety hazards caused by their performance degradation have gradually become an important issue for equipment and property safety. In response to the shortcomings of traditional passive maintenance and repair modes, this paper proposes a state evaluation model based on comprehensive health index and iterative prediction to achieve predictive maintenance analysis. This method is divided into two steps. Firstly, based on the internal parameters and routine test parameters of the TR, the status of the TR is evaluated, and a quantitative comprehensive health index is given according to the weight. Then, a risk prediction and evaluation method for traction transformer equipment is designed, using a non equidistant grey prediction model to predict the remaining life of the traction transformer status. Qualitative analysis of the health state of the traction transformer is provided. Through on-site maintenance records, the prediction results are compared with the actual transformer status, and the accuracy of the prediction is statistically analyzed. Based on the prediction results, the model is iteratively optimized to improve the accuracy of the evaluation, Based on this, a “monitoring-evaluation-analysis suggestion” model for the traction transformer of heavy-duty railways is established. Finally, the model mentioned in this paper is verified by the data of the traction transformer of a heavy haul railway traction electrical substation from 2015 to 2020, and the results show that the method is feasible.

Key words： heavy haul railways traction transformer combination weighting method gray prediction risk assessment

Received: 04 September 2023

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	Articles by authors
	YANG Gehui
	ZHAO Tongxi
	YAO Xin
	ZHANG Wanqi
	MENG Lingyu

Cite this article:

YANG Gehui,ZHAO Tongxi,YAO Xin等. A state evaluation method for heavy haul railway traction transformers based on health index and unequal interval grey prediction[J]. Electrical Engineering, 2023, 24(11): 10-17.

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http://dqjs.cesmedia.cn/EN/Y2023/V24/I11/10

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