|
|
|
| Research on Development Stage of Power Grid based on S Curve Model |
| Wang Liyu1, Ji Chuanliu2 |
1. Economic and Technology Research Institute of Changchun Power Supply Company, Changchun 130000;
2. Shandong Guoyan Electric Power Co., Ltd, Ji’nan 250000;
|
|
|
|
|
Abstract Based on the model of Logistic function based on S curve, the formation of the power grid development stage division theory system, and the characteristics of each stage of the development of power grid is described, and then through the Marquardt iteration method to estimate the parameters of S curve regression model, combined with the developed national grid development verified S curve model of power grid development stages based on the the domestic Z power grid development as an example, calculated the approximate time of power grid development, guide the key to power grid planning and construction.
|
|
Published: 21 March 2017
|
|
|
|
[1] 王建军. 城镇化成长阶段划分[J]. 地理学报, 2009, 64(2): 1-6.
[2] 胡列翔, 徐谦, 张全明, 等. 电网发展的阶段论[J]. 浙江电力, 2011, 30(12): 9-11, 73.
[3] 日本经济企划厅. 世界经济潮流[R].东京: 日本内阁府, 2010.
[4] 张干周. 日本电力工业概况(Ⅱ)[J]. 国际电力, 2003, 7(6): 6-11.
[5] 肖峻, 杜柏均, 耿芳. 城市电力负荷饱和分析方法[J]. 电力科学与技术学报, 2009, 24(4): 54-58.
[6] 崔凯, 李敬如, 赵彪, 等. 城市饱和负荷及其预测方法研究[J]. 电力技术经济, 2008, 20(6): 34-38.
[7] 张建平, 刘杰锋, 陈屹东, 等. 基于人均用电量和人均用电负荷的饱和负荷预测[J]. 华东电力, 2014, 42(4): 661-664.
[8] 卢斯煜, 娄素华, 吴耀武. 低碳经济下基于排放轨迹约束的电力系统电源扩展规划模型[J]. 电工技术学报, 2011(11): 175-181.
[9] 盛骤, 谢式千, 潘承毅. 概率论与数理统计[M]. 北京: 高等教育出版社, 1989.
[10] 茆诗松. 回归分析及其试验设计[M]. 上海: 华东师范大学出版社, 1986.
[11] 刘树森. 地市电网发展诊断指标体系研究[J]. 电气技术, 2014(5): 63-67, 76.
[12] 杨昭军, 师义民. Logistic模型参数估计及预测实例[J]. 数理统计与管理, 1997, 16(3): 13-15. |
|
|
|
2017, Vol. 18 
