Electrical Engineering  2017, Vol. 18 Issue (9): 35-39    DOI:
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The Combination Model based on Grey Verhulst and Markov Theory
Gong Zhaohui, Lin Tianxiang
Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350116

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Abstract  A linear combination model for medium and long-term power sysytem load forecasting is put forward in this paper, which based on grey Verhulst model and grey markov model. According to the characteristic of medium and long-term load has become increasingly saturated, with s-shaped prediction curve of grey Verhulst model was used to predict. On grey model has low degree of fitting when forecast the volatile objects, using markov theory to modify gery model to make up its inherent defects, and improve the prediction precision. Through the linear combination of grey Verhulst model and grey markov model, we can avoid the risks of the greater error in the single algorithm, and further improve the accuracy of forecast. The example shows that the combined model has higher accuracy, is practical and feasible.
Key wordsload forecasting      combined forecasting      grey markov model      gray Verhulst model     
Published: 20 September 2017
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Gong Zhaohui
Lin Tianxiang
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Gong Zhaohui,Lin Tianxiang. The Combination Model based on Grey Verhulst and Markov Theory[J]. Electrical Engineering, 2017, 18(9): 35-39.
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https://dqjs.cesmedia.cn/EN/Y2017/V18/I9/35
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