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| The Combination Model based on Grey Verhulst and Markov Theory |
| Gong Zhaohui, Lin Tianxiang |
| Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350116 |
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Abstract A linear combination model for medium and long-term power sysytem load forecasting is put forward in this paper, which based on grey Verhulst model and grey markov model. According to the characteristic of medium and long-term load has become increasingly saturated, with s-shaped prediction curve of grey Verhulst model was used to predict. On grey model has low degree of fitting when forecast the volatile objects, using markov theory to modify gery model to make up its inherent defects, and improve the prediction precision. Through the linear combination of grey Verhulst model and grey markov model, we can avoid the risks of the greater error in the single algorithm, and further improve the accuracy of forecast. The example shows that the combined model has higher accuracy, is practical and feasible.
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Published: 20 September 2017
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2017, Vol. 18 
