Abstract：Wind power and photovoltaic power generation systems have the characteristics of natural volatility and randomness, which increases the difficulty of risk assessment of power generation systems. In this paper, the sequential Monte Carlo method is used to study the reliability of power generation system, the optimization goal is to minimize the expected annual value of the total cost of the planning and operation of the power generation system, considering factors such as the planning and construction cost of renewable energy, the annual subsidy income of renewable energy, the annual operating cost of conventional thermal power units, the carbon market income of the power generation system, and the total cost of system power loss, etc. An optimization model for the capacity ratio of wind and solar power units considering the reliability of the power generation system is established. Finally, the optimal ratio of wind and solar power generation capacity under a typical example IEEE-RBTS system is studied, and further simulation verification is carried out in a certain regional power grid. The calculation example analysis verifies the validity of the model.
2022, Vol. 23 
