Assessment of cascading faults based on Monte Carlo simulated load changes
FU Qing1,2, DENG Huiqiong1,2
1. Fujian Provincal University Engineering Research Center for Simulation Analysis and Integrated Control of Smart Grid (Fujian University of Technology), Fuzhou 350108; 2. School of Electronic, Electrical Engineering and Physics, Fujian University of Technology, Fuzhou 350108
Abstract：For the influence of load fluctuation and uncertainty in the power system, this paper presents a cascading fault evaluation model based on the load state of Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). Firstly, a scaling factor of the system load is constructed. The upper and lower limits of the system load are determined by power current calculation. The load of each node fluctuates within this interval, which is randomly selected by MCS. Then the load state of the whole system is constituted. Secondly, the branch fault probability is determined by the limit value of the branch current. An initial fault probability model is established and a line overload probability model for the secondary fault is constructed to obtain the cascading fault probability model. Finally, the simulation results demonstrate that the probability of cascading faults is strongly correlated with the location of the initial fault branch, and the initial fault branches are classified in accordance with the probability index of cascading faults.
付庆, 邓慧琼. 基于蒙特卡洛模拟负荷变化的连锁故障评估[J]. 电气技术, 2025, 26(8): 37-43.
FU Qing, DENG Huiqiong. Assessment of cascading faults based on Monte Carlo simulated load changes. Electrical Engineering, 2025, 26(8): 37-43.
2025, Vol. 26 
