Research on Power Load Forecasting during the “Thirteenth Five-year” in North China
Hu Yuou1, 2, Zhang Yanfu1, Zhang Yongqiang3
1. North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206; 2. North China Branch of State Grid Corporation of China, Beijing 100053; 3. State Grid Yingda Group CPFC Huabei Branch, Beijing 100069
Abstract：Power load forecasting is an important content of power system planning, the results of which will directly related to the security, economical and reliable operation of power grid. With the emergence of new normal economy and the advancement of industrial structure adjustment in north China, the power load characteristics during the “Thirteenth Five-year” will change significantly. In this paper, three forecasting methods are employed to power load of North China power grid, such as the support vector machine (SVM), the peak load equivalent hour method and trend extrapolation method. Finally, the comprehensive results are obtained based on three methods, which considers the influence factors, the characteristics of the expert experience and the historical change trend. The comprehensive results show that the maximum load of North China power grid will reach 200 million kW and 260 million kW in 2015 and 2020, respectively; and the power load will increase with a growth of 5.4% during the “Thirteenth Five-year”.
胡娱欧, 张艳馥, 张永强. “十三五”期间华北电网负荷预测研究[J]. 电气技术, 2016, 17(5): 11-15.
Hu Yuou, Zhang Yanfu, Zhang Yongqiang. Research on Power Load Forecasting during the “Thirteenth Five-year” in North China. Electrical Engineering, 2016, 17(5): 11-15.
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2016, Vol. 17 
