|
|
|
| Meteorological load forecasting based on cumulative average temperature model |
| Pan Wenhu, Xia Youbin, Song Mingmin, Su Zhipeng, Zhao Qian |
| State Grid Wuhu Power Supply Company, Wuhu, Anhui 241000 |
|
|
|
|
Abstract The characteristics of basic load and meteorological load are analyzed in the paper firstly, the feature of summer weather would be classified by maximum temperature using historical meteorological data. Then the correlation coefficient method is used to screen out the meteorological indicators that is most relevant to the daily meteorological load, and the cumulative average temperature is chosen to predict meteorological load. Finally, the regression model is used to give the relationship between daily meteorological load and dominant meteorological indicators, and the maximum load forecast for 2019is given according to the different temperature conditions.
|
|
Received: 08 August 2019
Published: 16 April 2020
|
|
|
|
| Cite this article: |
|
Pan Wenhu,Xia Youbin,Song Mingmin等. Meteorological load forecasting based on cumulative average temperature model[J]. Electrical Engineering, 2020, 21(4): 67-70.
|
|
|
|
| URL: |
|
http://dqjs.cesmedia.cn/EN/Y2020/V21/I4/67
|
[1] 刘翊枫, 周辉, 刘昕, 等. 基于气象成分分解的夏季短期负荷预测[J]. 电测与仪表: 2019, 56(21): 129-135.
[2] 邓裕文, 吴冠平, 毛卫东, 等. 中长期负荷预测的多因素模型研究[J]. 内蒙古电力技术, 2019, 37(3): 23-28.
[3] 齐斌. 计及多源气象信息与评价指标冲突的概率短期负荷预测[D]. 吉林: 东北电力大学, 2019.
[4] 张贲, 孙田, 史沛然, 等. 基于实时气象因素和LSSVM的短期负荷预测研究[J]. 电气时代, 2019(3): 69-71.
[5] 顾天天. 统筹自然增长与跃变增长的区镇负荷预测研究[J]. 电气技术, 2015, 16(12): 91-93, 101.
[6] 黄文杰. 城市配电网规划负荷预测方法分析[J]. 电气技术, 2014, 15(11): 97-99.
[7] 陈衡, 王科, 陈丽华. 基于滤波算法的节假日短期负荷预测研究[J]. 电气技术, 2014, 15(9): 12-15, 31.
[8] 喻乐, 施磊, 沈茂亚, 等. 考虑气象因素影响的北京电网短期负荷预测研究[J]. 电气应用, 2019, 38(2): 75-81.
[9] 张国华, 胡剑. 基于动态反馈的多元参数回归空调负荷预测控制方法[J]. 机电工程技术, 2018, 47(11): 64-69.
[10] 程卓. 引入负荷温度梯度的负荷预测方法研究[J]. 电气技术, 2015, 16(10): 13-16, 44.
[11] 戚任远. 上海用电负荷预测中气温累积效应分析[J]. 现代电力, 2018, 35(2): 38-42. |
|
|
|
2020, Vol. 21 
