|
|
|
| Research on Grey Verhulst and Equal Dimension New Information Model in Medium and Long Term Load Forecasting |
| Lin Tianxiang, Zhang Ning |
| Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350116 |
|
|
|
|
Abstract The paper proposes a linear grey combined model for the medium and long term power load forecasting which has the characteristics of less historical data and more influencing factors.The model is a linear combination of the grey Verhulst model and the equal dimension new information grey theory.The model gives full play to the advantages of the grey Verhulst model which needs less data and is not affected by the specific load data.The model also takes advantages of the equal dimension new information grey theory ,which can maintain the original dimension of the data,guarantee the optimal information quantity,achieve dynamic prediction.The results show that the model has high accuracy and practicability.
|
|
Published: 21 March 2017
|
|
|
|
| Cite this article: |
|
Lin Tianxiang,Zhang Ning. Research on Grey Verhulst and Equal Dimension New Information Model in Medium and Long Term Load Forecasting[J]. Electrical Engineering, 2017, 18(3): 42-46.
|
|
|
|
| URL: |
|
http://dqjs.cesmedia.cn/EN/Y2017/V18/I3/42
|
[1] 牛东晓. 电力负荷预测技术及其应用[M]. 北京: 中国电力出版社, 1998.
[2] 刘思峰. 灰色系统理论及其应用(Grey system theory and application)[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 1999.
[3] 邓聚龙. 灰理论基础[M]. 武汉: 华中科技大学出版社, 2002.
[4] Bates J M, Granger C. The combination of forecasts[J]. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 1969, 20(4): 451-468.
[5] 张宁, 黄伟琼. 基于马尔科夫链改进无偏灰色Verhulst的中长期负荷预测模型[J]. 南昌大学学报(工科版), 2015, 37(4): 396-399, 404.
[6] 马永开, 唐小成. 线性组合预测模型优化问题研究[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 1998(9): 10-114, 123. |
|
|
|
2017, Vol. 18 
